Week 3

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Well, I already posted this but I guess it got lost in the migration to the new forum.

NY Giants -2.5

Tampa +3
 

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I am holding out and hoping to get a better number on the Chiefs. No Priest Holmes equals no big deal. That O-line will dominate Houston all day....
 

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giants look good to me too

I worry about the bucs though - grudens head is lost IMO

putting in simms in the second Q last week was the last straw. In Oakland I have to take the other side.

GL
 

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I think it'll be an ugly game, but my system relies heavily on rushing yards and defense. The +3.5 is a huge factor for my pick as these teams are about dead even.
 

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So much emotion in that Raider game. Gannon might bust a gut trying to win and even humiliate the Bucs if that ever becomes possible. I'd pass.

If you base many bets on running and defense, how can you like KC if no Holmes? I think Vermeil should have stuck to his 3-year plan. He's a great guy. but he IS old and his sentimentality left him with the same gang of awful defenders. KC has virtually NO passing game on the field. KC's edges are their O-line and Dante Hall. Their receiving corps is much worse and they get an 'F' for defense as opposed to the Texans 'D'.

My call...with Holmes, KC 31-27. Without Holmes, HOU 27-20.

Don't underestimate Capers. He is a good coach. I will say that if D. Davis coughs it up twice again, anything is possible, but I would bet under half a fumble.
 

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It also relies heavily on homefield and KC has one of the largest gaps out there for me. I agree Holmes is a big loss, but I don't think it matters who runs to be honest Houston is going to get beat up bad up front all day. I won't touch this though till it gets to one TD.
 

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I've noticed one thing over time...when a major team is having problems, that home field ceases to be worth as much when they are decent-sized favorites. You have the big years - 12-4+ record, when they cover at home 6-2 or better, and you get the bad years where they still do ok when a tiny fav. or dog - KC, DEN, the old BUF all come to mind. But I see this moment for the Chiefs as a 'tweener, a poor reflection of their traditional home edge.

You emphasize the Chiefs O-line, which I grant you is a good edge for them. What about their ridiculous defense against a fairly explosive Texan offense? It's easy to get fixated on a favorite and not recognize that the wheels are nearly coming off :) I've been there before.

Good luck whatever you decide...if Holmes is announced as definitely out, I recommend waiting for 6.5 or maybe even 6...I feel confident it breaks through 7.
 

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Well you also have to take into account the two teams the Texans put up their "explosive numbers" on.... I am not betting this game unless it falls to 7 and I can buy the hook. Right now all the value is on the Texans, you are right about that.
 

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Tampa? Tampa? Tampa?

The same Tampa with the worst offense in the NFL?

You are definitely seeing something I don't. I'm not saying Oakland is a great team, but Tampa? I think they have lost 8 out of their last 11 games!

Tampa's value is in the past performances. Go big on Oakland to cover what you've already lost on tampa.

Luck:cool:
 

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Obviously Tampa is bad, but it is a system play. Let's not pretend that Oakland is some power house here anyway.....
 

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with you CHADC.....ATL ....i GOT IT AT 9 1/2 TOO..........NO LUCK HERE
 

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I like them

Seems like everyone is on Phili and NO. I like the Atl and Giants call.
 

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just wondering if the gints won't be in letdown mode after beating the skins last week :think:


anyway, best of luck to you today chad c. :drink:
 

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I can dig on the majority of your plays, but Atlanta seems like a tough proposition at such a high number.

I think they're due for a letdown, and fear the back-door cover, but I'm not touching it, so GL and I hope they pull it out for ya.
 

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Michael Vick killed my fantasy team and killed the bet... Oh well, still a good day so far.
 

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